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"New preprint! osf.io/preprints/ps... The age-period-cohort problem is something that many researchers are vaguely aware of. There have been very cool advances in how to reason about it which don't seem to be well-known in psych. So, I've written a primer!"
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"Abstract Psychological researchers are interested in how things change over time and routinely make claims about, for example, age effects (e.g., personality changes with age) or cohort effects (e.g., differences in intelligence between cohorts). The age-period-cohort identification problem means that these claims are not possible based on the data alone: Any possible temporal pattern can be explained by an infinite number of combinations of age, period, and cohort effects. This concern holds regardless of the study design—it also applies to longitudinal designs covering multiple cohorts—and regardless of the number of observations available—it also applies if we observe the whole population. Researchers rely on statistical models that impose assumptions to pick one specific combination of effects. But these assumptions are often opaque and researchers may be unaware of them, resulting in a lack of scrutiny. Here,..."
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